Quick Political Round-Up

I'm writing tonight after a several week period of being too busy for my own good, and too busy to post. Tonight's subject is political prognostication. I'm gratified to see, in the GOP race for the Presidential nomination, that my favored candidate, Mike Huckabee, is surging. Huckabee has succeeded in courting the mainstream media, who do not understand that a big-time pastor has the same skill set as a major corporate CEO. I now believe Huckabee will win Iowa, and he is approaching an even money shot at winning the nomination. I do not believe any of the attacks on Huckabee I've seen so far will stick, and the attacks may actually serve to legitimize him.

I still think Giuliani is the national front-runner. Romney will probably be crippled after New Hampshire, and finished after South Carolina. Here's why Romney will fade: John McCain will exceed expectations in New Hampshire, probably finishing a close second to Romney. A narrow and fading victory by Romney in New Hampshire will further shred an image that will be in tatters after Iowa. I don't think McCain has enough mainstream Republican support to capitalize on what I expect to be his New Hampshire success. Huckabee will dominate South Carolina, forcing Thompson's withdrawal. This will set up the February 5 battle which will probably decide the nomination, with the advantage to Giuliani over Huckabee on the basis of money and organization. This scenario should not be surprising, as I've for months predicted the GOP fight would wind up being between EITHER Huckabee or Thompson and Giuliani or Romney. Thompson's fizzle is the direct result of Huckabee's fire, though I had expected a better campaign performance than Thompson has thus far shown. It's all thrilling to watch for a political junkie like me. We'll see how my predictions turn out, but right now Huckabee is riding his wave, and I'm right there with him.

On the Democratic side, it's fun to watch Hillary squirm. Can you imagine the staff meetings with Hillary over the past two weeks as her internal polling has tanked? I have written before of Hillary's political tin ear, which I've hoped would doom her general election prospects. Until recently, I've never thought, though, that she could lose the Democratic nomination. Her organization looked too strong and her competition too weak. I've had to rethink this over the past two weeks, but I still cannot credibly imagine the Democrats handing their nomination to a candidate as weak as Obama or Edwards. If Hillary does indeed lose Iowa, and five days later does not win strong in New Hampshire, look for crisis-management mode among the Democrat muckety-mucks. It will likely manifest itself in the form of a major Draft Al Gore movement. All bets would be off at that point, with a major dogfight between Gore and the Clintons. In any case, I believe that scenario unlikely, and I still think Hillary is likely to win the Democratic nomination. Never underestimate the Clintons. They are capable of anything.